Hand valuation.

 

All forms of hand evaluation are for guideline purposes only and are designed to get you to the right suit and level as often as possible.  This does not guarantee that the contract will make but that it will work out best in the long run.   You should revise your hand value after every bid and pass.   For instance, if you LHO opens or overcalls 1♠ and you have ♠Kxx your hand is worse than when you first picked it up however if RHO makes the same call, your hand has improved slightly.

 

Points (HCPs)

 

Perhaps the most used method, as it is simple to understand but it has many weaknesses on more distributional hands.

 

You should consider opening at the one level with any balanced hand with 12-21 HCPs and more distributional hands can be opened on fewer than 12 HCPs but if you have no fit you will frequently end up in 2 or 3NT with insufficient values.

So part scores should be available with a combined 20-24 HCPs

 

Simply put, you normally need 25-32 points for game in No Trumps and about 25-30 points for game in a 5-3, 6-2 or 4-4 major fit.   Where you have more than an 8 card fit, you may require fewer HCPs

 

You will normally need 26-30 HCPs for game in an 8 card minor fit.

 

Small slams are bid with 33-36 HCPs (NT) and 30-36 in suits

You should be able to play 4NT as a quantitative (points showing) bid showing enough for a small slam if partner is max for her bidding so far but passable if minimum.

 

Grand slams are usually bid on hands of 35+ HCPs

You should be able to play 5NT as a quantitative bid showing enough for a grand slam if partner is max for her bidding so far but passable if minimum.

 

Losing trick count explained:

This is a useful way to evaluate hands where you have a fit with your partner.

Each suit is assumed to have a maximum of 3 losers in it.   If you hold no AKQ you count 3 losers and deduct 1 loser for each of these honours that you hold.

For example if you have

A10876           - 2 losers

J2                     - 2 losers

AK104                        - 1 loser

98                    - 2 losers

In total you have 7 losers.

The LTC says you should open the bidding with 7 losers at the one level.

As responder you add your losers to your partner’s assumed number of losers and subtract this from 24.  This will indicate how many tricks you should take.

Let’s say that you have

J2                     - 2 losers

AK104                        - 1 loser

98                    - 2 losers

A10765           - 2 losers

i.e. 7 losers so you have 24-(7+7) = 10 and looking at the hands above this seems about right if ♠ break 3-3 or KQ doubleton or KQ ‘onside’.

If we improve the hand by inserting the two black Kings then we have a 5 loser hand (24-(7+5) = 12) and this also seems about right.

K2                   - 1 losers

AK104                        - 1 loser

98                    - 2 losers

AK1076          - 1 losers

 

You may have a way of assessing your losers but does this always = 13-winners?   The answer is “no”.   I find it a useful guide when thinking of bidding game but you need to be more scientific for slams.   It is good in that it rightly down-values 3334 shape hands.

Its main weakness comes when you have a shapely hand but no fit for partner.

32                    - 2 losers

KQ10987        - 1 loser

-                       - 0 losers

KQ1076          - 1 losers

i.e. 4 losers (24-(7+4) = 13) but you can only make 11 tricks in ♥.

 

There are adjustments that you can make and it is worth reading the main books on this subject.

 

Fit or misfit?

There are two aspects to a fit (8 or more cards in a suit).   The combined length and the position of the honour cards.

A10987           KJ32 will play much better than

 

J9764               A532

 

You will need to agree with you partner how many cards you are showing in various bidding sequences.   I strongly suggest that if you raise you partner’s 5 card suit to the 3 level that you have a 4 card fit (following the law of total tricks), i.e. 8 card fit for 2 level, 4 level for 10 card fit IF YOU DON’T HAVE THE HCPs required for game.

See also how to work out whether your honour cards are working in side suits by using trial bids.    If you have a fit with your partner in two suits you will often need far fewer points for game for example

J2                     - 3

AK104                        - QJ876

98                    - 104

A10765           - KQ832

4♥ looks a good contract on a combined 20 HCPs.

The rôle of 10s

 

If you are considering whether to bid game in a suit or NTs then a look at the types of honours that you have will often act as a guide.   Generally a hand containing Qs, Js and 10s will play better in NTs and a hand with Aces and Ks will play better in a suit.

If you are swithering as to whether to raise an invitational bid to game in NT then add ½ a HCP for each 10 and add ½ for each extra card in a decent 5 card, or longer, suit. (i.e. 5 cards = ½ ).

 

Honour fits with partner’s hand – Trial bids

There is a way to ask for a side suit fit that is commonly played.

A normal auction may proceed:

1♠        -           2♠

??

Let us say that you have

♠AQ876

♥1087

♦AK103

♣A

You can bid 4♠ next of course but this is a plain gamble.

Your partner is 6-9 points so you have 23-26 points and game might be on.

You have 5 losers.   You can bid a natural 3♦ to show game interest but let’s look at the problem from the other side of the table

a)                                                      b)

♠ K32                    K32

♥ J32                     2

♦  J52                     Q52

♣ Q1076               J87542

 

On hand (a) you have 7 HCPs, lttle shape and would need the ♦ finesse most likely to make game, a reasonable prospect at teams perhaps.   Hand (b) is weaker but the ♥ shortage make game almost certain.   Certainly, after a natural 3♦ bid hand (a) will bid 3♠ at pairs and so will hand (b).

 

The trial bid, is made by a hand that is better than minimum (15+ or 6 or fewer losers) and is a bid in a suit in which you have the most losers (here that is 3♥).  Partner should review her hand based on her ability to cover your losers.   So hand (a) will bid 3♠ and (b) will bid 4♠.   You can also make a trial bid in a suit after your partner has shown a minimum raise (hand 1).  Sometimes a trial bid is made by a hand that was going to bid game anyway and wishes to explore slam at a low level.

 

Honour holdings in suits where you have no fit established.

You should not that Q32 - J54 is a poor holding in NT if you have to play the suit whereas QJ2 - 543 will nearly always provide a stopper.  So you should give extra weight to touching honours rather than ones that are ‘isolated’.

Hand 1  Dealer N Love all   Bidding 8; Play 4; Defence 2;

 

♠ J98

♥ 6532

♦ AKJ75

♣ 10

♠ A1065                                  ♠ KQ74

♥ Q98                                      ♥ AJ10

♦ 943                                       ♦ 2

♣ A32                                      ♣ K9854

♠ 32

♥ K74

♦ Q1086

♣ QJ76

 

How the bidding went:

N         E          S          W

P          1♣       P          1♠

P          2♠        P          3♦1

P          4♠        All pass

West should look favourably on her 2 aces in suits that have been bid and make a trial bid (suit with the most losers – note that this gives East an easy raise to game with the diamond shortage). If West just raises 2♠ to 3♠ (I suggest that you play this as pre-emptive) then East has a pure guess as to whether game is good or not.  If you swap West’s red suits around you will see that game is nowhere near as good a prospect now.

 

Also Board 2 Dealer E, NS Vulnerable Bidding 8; Play 5; Defence 5;

 

♠ 6

♥ K74

♦ KJ93

♣ 107432

♠ K852                                    ♠ AQ73

♥ 983                                       ♥ 106

♦ 65                                         ♦ 10874

♣ AQ65                                   ♣ KJ9

♠ J1094

♥ AQJ52

♦ AQ2

♣ 8

How the bidding went.

N               E                      S          W

                  P                      1♥        P

2♥              P                      2♠        P

4♥  All pass

 

The auction should be fairly normal until it comes to South’s rebid.   The 2♠ is a trial bid (the suit with the most losers) and 16+.  North should now have an easy raise to game.

 

Board 3 Dealer S, EW Vulnerable Bidding 6; Play 4; Defence 4;

 

♠ A107

♥ 93

♦ Q8765

♣ A108

♠ KQ982                                 ♠ J53

♥ AJ5                                      ♥ Q762

♦ KJ3                                       ♦ A2

♣ Q2                                       ♣ J765

♠ 64

♥ K1084

♦ 1094

♣ K943

 

How the bidding went:

N         E          S          W

                        P          1♠

P          2♠        P          3♣

3♠  All pass

 

West could make a trial bid in any of his suits with 2 losers and you could argue that with 5332 shape and only 16 HCPs that a game try is a bit aggressive. But with ♣KJxxx and 4 small ♥, game would have a good chance.

 

Board 4 Dealer W, All Vulnerable Bidding 8; Play 4; Defence 4;

 

♠ A2

♥ KQ97

♦ K103

♣ QJ104

♠ Q765                                    ♠ J43

♥ 53                                         ♥ AJ104

♦ J85                                        ♦ A42

♣ 8765                                                ♣ A32

♠ K1098

♥ 862

♦ Q976

♣ K9

 

 

How the bidding might go:

N         E          S          W

                                    P

1NT     P          2♣       P

2♥        P          2NT     P

3NT1    All pass

 

1 North should consider the value of the 10’s and adjacent honours (KQ and QJ) and bid the thin game.

 

Board 5 Dealer N, Vulnerability NS Bidding 8; Play 5; Defence 6;

 

♠ A1073

♥ 109

♦ J72

♣ A1084

♠ Q5                                        ♠ KJ86

♥ A765                                    ♥ Q42

♦ AQ4                                     ♦ 986

♣ KJ93                                    ♣ Q65

♠ 942

♥ KJ83

♦ K1053

♣ 72

How the bidding went:

N         E          S          W

P          P          P          1NT

P          2♣       P          2♥

P          2NT     All pass

This time the West hand is full of holes with no redeeming feature at all.  A clear pass.  Indeed careful defence or a small mistake in declarer’s play may lead to only 7 tricks.

 

Board 6 Dealer E, EW vulnerable Bidding 8; Play 3; Defence 3;

 

♠ 7

♥ K9876

♦ AQ65

♣ K76

♠ KJ102                                   ♠ Q9864

♥ 5                                           ♥ J32

♦ J982                                      ♦ 1073

♣ A932                                    ♣ 108

♠ A53

♥ AQ104

♦ K4

♣ QJ54

 

How the bidding went:

N         E          S          W

            P          1NT     P

2♦1       P          2♥2      P

3♦        P          4♥        P

4NT     P          5♥        P

6♥ All pass

  1. Transfer to ♥
  2. A transfer break to 2NT or 3♥ would be helpful if you play this as showing 4 card support and a max.
  3. North should give full value to the losers now.   A strong NT opener is usually 7 or 6 losers.   The north hand is 6 losers so with one Ace missing there should be a play for the slam. (24 – (6+6) = 12 tricks)

 

Board 7 Dealer S,  All Vulnerable Bidding 7; Play 3; Defence 2;

 

♠ AJ10

♥ J4

♦ 932

♣ KJ982

♠ 94                                         ♠ 872

♥ KQ109                                 ♥ A832

♦ AK754                                 ♦ QJ86

♣ 43                                        ♣ A10

♠ KQ653

♥ 765

♦ 10

♣ Q765

 

How the bidding might go:

N         E          S          W

                        P          1♦

P          1♥        P          2♥

P          4♥        All pass

If East should judge that her fit in ♦ and ♥ should give a good chance of game so bids it rather than inviting with 2♠ or 2NT.

Board 8            Dealer W, Love all Bidding 7; Play 5; Defence 7;

 

♠ KQ932

♥ 4

♦ AK5

♣ Q532

♠ J5                                          ♠ A10876

♥ KQ93                                   ♥ 82

♦ 10964                                   ♦ 732

♣ AJ8                                      ♣ 1097

♠ 4

♥ AJ10765

♦ QJ8

♣ K64

How the bidding went.

N         E          S          W

                                    P

1♠        P          2♥        P

2NT     P          All pass

 

Even if North’s rebid may be 12-15 (playing a 16-18 NT) South should view the misfit with suspicion and be conservative at pairs.  3NT should have no chance on even ordinary defence and can be held to 7 tricks on best defence.

Board 9 E/W vulnerable dealer N  Bidding 8; Play 4; Defence 3;

 

♠10542

♥J2

♦J1096

♣J84

♠KQ76                                                ♠A3                            

♥AK103                                  ♥Q98                                      

♦Q87                                       ♦AK54                                               

♣Q5                                        ♣A1093                                              

♠ J98

♥ 7654

♦ 32

♣ K762

How it should go

N         E          S          W

P          1NT     P          2♣

P          2♦        P          4NT1

P          6NT     All Pass

 

1  This bid should be quantitative i.e. if you need 33+ for a small slam in NT “I have around 15 HCPs”.  It can be passed by a minimum partner.   East has a reasonable 17 so tries for the slam bonus that should be rewarded today on any normal play in the ♣ suit.

Some will ask how do I ask for aces here and show a major suit fit if partner responds 2M to the Stayman enquiry.   You have two main ways. The simplest is to use 4♣ as Gerber.  Alternative you can cue bid.

 

10. Vulnerability: All    Dealer: E  Bidding 8; Play 2; Defence 4;

 

♠ KQ1092

♥ 62

♦ AKQJ8

♣ A

♠ 76                                         ♠ A54

♥ J874                                     ♥ K1053

♦`1064                                     ♦ 932

♣ KJ54                                    ♣ 732

                        ♠ J83

                        ♥ AQ9

                        ♦ 75

                        ♣ Q10986

 

How it should go:

N         E          S          W

P          P          P         

1♠        P          2♠        P

3♥1      P          4♠        P

4NT     P          5♦        P

6♠        all pass

1  Trial bid normally searching for game

2 I have ♥ covered!

6♠ is about a 50% slam on a ♥ lead and better if no ♥ lead.

 

11. Vulnerability: Nil    Dealer: S  Bidding 8; Play 2; Defence 2;

 

♠ 10764

♥ KQ103

♦ 10862

♣ 2

♠ J5                                          AKQ32                                  

♥ A6                                        J52                                          

♦`AJ7                                       K3                                          

♣ AQJ1063                             K85                                        

                        ♠ 98

                        ♥ 9874

                        ♦ Q954

                        ♣ 974

 

 

How it should go:

N         E          S          W

P          1♣

P          1♠        P          3♣

P          4NT     P          5♠

P          7NT     all pass

West has a normal 1♣ opening and 3♣ rebid (16-18 with a good 6+ card suit).  East has a key K♣ and a source of tricks in ♠.   Asking for Aces with 4NT (not this is not usually Quantitative after a distributional hand is shown).   East can virtually count 6 ♣ two red aces and the K♦ and 3 ♠.  So if partner has 2 ♠ or J♠ or a 7th ♣ or even K♥ there will be a good chance of 7NT despite 32 HCPs.